New Delhi: Trade experts have cautioned India against rushing into a bilateral trade agreement with the United States, warning that a hasty deal—particularly one compromising sensitive sectors like agriculture—could have long-term adverse consequences. The warning comes amid a broader pattern of what experts describe as aggressive, politically motivated trade demands by the US, even targeting some of its closest partners.
Economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) emphasised that India is not alone in facing pressure from Washington. The US has recently issued tariff threat letters to 24 countries and the European Union, with proposed duties reaching as high as 50 per cent in the case of Brazil, and 30 per cent on key partners like the EU and Mexico, effective August 1.
“India must recognise that these are not isolated incidents,” said GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava. “The US is currently negotiating with over 20 countries and seeking concessions from more than 90. Yet, most are resisting because they see these MASALA (Mutually Agreed Settlements Achieved through Leveraged Arm-twisting) deals for what they are—politically driven, transactional demands offering no lasting trade certainty.”
Srivastava pointed out that while the EU and Mexico are major trade partners of the US, even they are facing punitive tariffs as part of Washington’s pressure tactics. India, he warned, cannot expect a more balanced deal under such circumstances.
Another trade analyst echoed the caution, noting that US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade posturing is losing credibility on the international stage. Despite months of pressure, only two countries—the United Kingdom and Vietnam—have thus far agreed to the US's one-sided terms.
“From Japan and South Korea to the EU and Australia, most countries are pushing back,” GTRI noted. “The US demands include tariff cuts without reciprocal concessions, compulsory purchases of American goods, and vague guarantees that still allow for future tariff impositions even after agreements are signed.”
A team of Indian trade negotiators is expected to visit Washington soon for further discussions on the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). However, experts insist that India must proceed cautiously.
“India should stay the course and avoid trading away core sectors like agriculture,” said Srivastava. “A hasty deal under pressure could have irreversible consequences—especially when such agreements may not survive the next political shift in the United States.”
The caution comes at a time when India is seeking to expand its global trade footprint but must navigate a volatile and increasingly transactional global trade environment.
With PTI inputs