As the monsoon season approaches, the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region is bracing for a higher-than-usual risk of floods, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), according to a new report by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).
The intergovernmental organisation cited forecasts from various meteorological agencies predicting above-average rainfall across the region between June and September, combined with temperatures expected to rise up to two degrees Celsius higher than normal.
"Above-normal precipitation between June and September, as predicted by the various meteorological agencies, is fraught with the high risks of disastrous flash floods and landslides along the mountainous terrains," the report stated.
ICIMOD emphasised that warmer temperatures are accelerating glacier and snowmelt, leading to short-term increases in river flow and elevated risks of GLOFs. This, in turn, could impact the long-term water supply for millions of people downstream, as reduced snow accumulation threatens future water reserves.
The HKH region, which is acutely sensitive to monsoon patterns—especially those driven by the Indian Ocean and South Asian systems—relies heavily on seasonal rainfall to replenish river systems that support nearly two billion people.
However, ICIMOD warned that climate change is making the monsoon more erratic and hazardous. Water-related disasters such as heatwaves, storms, floods, landslides, wildfires, droughts, and GLOFs are becoming more frequent and intense. Notably, over 72.5 percent of flood events in the HKH since 1980 have occurred during the monsoon months.
"The forecasts we have studied are unanimous in predicting a hotter monsoon across the entire HKH, with a trend towards higher-than-normal rainfall in major parts of HKH," said Arun Bhakta Shrestha, senior advisor at ICIMOD.
He further noted that the dual threats of elevated temperatures and intense rainfall amplify the likelihood of flash floods, landslides, and debris flows. These changes also have long-term implications for glaciers, snow cover, and permafrost.
In contrast, regions like Afghanistan, which are already water-stressed, may experience reduced rainfall—putting additional pressure on food and water security. "Lower rainfall, meanwhile, particularly in water-stressed countries such as Afghanistan, may pose risks to food and water security in a country with already extraordinarily high levels of malnutrition," Shrestha added.
Saswata Sanyal, who leads ICIMOD's disaster risk reduction efforts, stressed the urgency of implementing preparedness measures: "Given the extremely high exposure and risks in our region, we urgently need impact-based early warning systems adopted at scale and for government and donor support to build up disaster preparedness to increase."