The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Tuesday that conditions are becoming favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala within the next four to five days.
This potential early arrival would mark one of the earliest monsoon onsets over the Indian mainland in recent years.
"Conditions are likely to become favourable for monsoon onset over Kerala during the next 4-5 days," the IMD said in its afternoon update.
Typically, the monsoon reaches Kerala by June 1, but this year, the IMD had initially predicted it could arrive by May 27. If it sets in as now anticipated, it would be the earliest onset since 2009, when the monsoon hit the southern coast on May 23.
In 2023, the monsoon reached Kerala on June 8. It arrived on May 29 in 2022, June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019, and May 29 in 2018. Last year, it began on May 30.
The monsoon typically covers the entire country by July 8 and begins withdrawing from northwest India around September 17, completing the retreat by October 15.
Earlier in April, the IMD forecasted above-normal rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season and ruled out the presence of El Nino conditions, which are generally associated with reduced rainfall across the Indian subcontinent.
As per IMD classifications, rainfall between 96 and 104 percent of the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm is considered ‘normal’. Rainfall below 90 percent of the LPA is categorised as ‘deficient’, between 90 and 95 percent as ‘below normal’, 105 to 110 percent as ‘above normal’, and anything above 110 percent as ‘excess’.
The arrival of the monsoon is of critical importance to India’s agricultural sector, which supports over 42 percent of the population and contributes 18.2 percent to the country's GDP. It also plays a vital role in replenishing reservoirs used for drinking water and electricity generation.