M Swaraj and PV Anvar
Nilambur: The poll scenario in the by-election for the Nilambur assembly constituency in Kerala's Malappuram district has been undergoing dramatic twists in the last few days. The by-poll was necessitated by the resignation of CPI-M-backed independent member PV Anvar following his break with the CPI-M and the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF). More specifically, he fell out with the chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan.
But now Anvar himself is again making the news with a threat to the Opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) which had pinned hopes on capitalising on his break with the ruling front. And Anvar himself had tried to woo the Opposition front and win its endorsement for a candidate he had proposed.
While the contest with polling scheduled for Junen 19, is technically a quadrangular contest, the real fight is clearly between the ruling CPI(M) - led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).
The Congress has fielded Aryadan Shoukath, son of veteran leader Aryadan Mohammed, while the CPI(M) has brought in its prominent youth leader and former MLA M. Swaraj. In addition to being unhappy with the candidature given to Shoukath, Anvar is all the more peeved at being belittled by the UDF which gave him little consideration during the choice of its candidate.
Meanwhile the BJP which was until very late heard to stay out of the contest, has nominated political turncoat Mohan George. With the BJP's vote share in the constituency being very low, the party was reluctant to spend its resources in a contest that is inconsequential both in its substantive and symbolic aspects. The MLA to be chosen will have not more than ten months in the house.
As for Anvar, he had earlier pledged full support to the UDF following his dramatic exit and had vowed not to contest the by-election.
However, in a volte face, Anvar, who had said that contesting require huge funds which he didn't have, filed his nomination on Monday after his efforts to rejoin the UDF failed, particularly due to stiff resistance from Leader of the Opposition V.D. Satheesan.
Despite lobbying from the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and the attempts by League leader PK Kunhalikutty to persuade Congress leaders of the second-largest UDF ally, Satheesan stood firm.
Anvar, who has now joined the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), lashed out at UDF leaders before filing his nomination.
“If Satheesan, Shoukath, and Minister Riyas don’t behave, just wait -- I’ll reveal a lot. I’ve sought one of two symbols -- if not the AITC’s, it will be another. Satheesan acts like Hitler, and even the IUML is upset with his attitude,” Anvar told reporters.
In the 2016 election, Anvar, as a CPI-M backed independent candidate, defeated the Congress candidate by 11,504 votes. However, his margin narrowed down in 2021, when he scraped through with just 2,700 votes.
The BJP, which received 8,595 votes in 2021, has fielded Mohan George -- who was given party membership just a day before his candidature was announced. In 2016, the BJP-backed BDJS candidate had secured 12,284 votes.
For the CPI-M, this bypoll is a must-win. Chief Minister Vijayan launched the party’s campaign on Sunday and is expected to return for another round of campaigning from June 13.
Notably, this is the first time since 2006 that the CPI-M is fielding its own candidate in Nilambur.
Nilambur has long been a Congress bastion, with the party's heavy weight Aryadan Mohammed winning the seat eight times between 1965 and 2011. His son Ardyadan Shoukath is trying his best to cash in on the heritage and appeal of his late father.
After filing his nomination, Swaraj said the CPI-M’s campaign launch led by CM Vijayan was “electrifying,” adding that people see this by-election as a curtain-raiser for the 2026 assembly polls, in which the Left hopes to secure a third straight term.
Although Anvar and George claim the contest will be close, few doubt that the real battle is between Shoukath and Swaraj.
With Monday marking the close of nominations, attention now turns to how many name-sake candidates enter the fray -- a common feature in Kerala elections.
(With IANS input)