Israel’s widening military campaign against Iran has shifted global attention to the geopolitical flashpoint of the Strait of Hormuz, as fears mount that the escalating conflict could disrupt a key artery of the world’s energy supply.
In a shift from initial strikes on nuclear and military infrastructure, Israel has now expanded its operations to target oil facilities, drawing Iran’s threat to shut down the crucial maritime passage into sharper focus.
The Strait of Hormuz, which is bordered by Iran and Oman and connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, is vital to the global economy as it serves as the transit route for approximately one-fifth of the world’s petroleum liquids.
Although Iran has often used the threat of closing the strait as a geopolitical tool, it has never enacted a full blockade, as doing so would also cripple its own economy which depends on the strait for oil exports.
Following Israel’s unprecedented attack on Iran, Iranian lawmakers and military figures suggested that closing the strait was under active consideration, raising the stakes of a conflict that has already disrupted diplomatic efforts and regional summits.
While the potential closure remains a threat rather than an imminent reality, military analysts and policymakers fear that any interference in the passage of oil tankers would trigger global economic repercussions, as higher energy prices, shipping insurance premiums, and logistical costs would exacerbate inflation across major economies, according to Arab News.
Despite the strategic threat, key Gulf oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have alternative export routes. Saudi Aramco operates pipelines that connect its eastern production facilities to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, capable of transporting up to seven million barrels a day.
The UAE similarly utilises a pipeline linking its oilfields to the port of Fujairah, located outside the strait’s chokepoint, which can carry 1.5 million barrels daily. However, both countries have previously experienced attacks on these routes, with Iranian-linked sabotage in 2019 targeting vessels near Fujairah.
Despite attacks on over 450 ships and the loss of hundreds of lives, including American sailors, the waterway remained largely operational throughout the conflict.
Furthermore, Iran’s own dependence on the strait for its oil trade would deter it from pursuing a full closure. Analysts argue that any prolonged disruption would also alienate key allies, especially China, which receives the majority of its Gulf oil through the strait and would not favour an escalation that compromises its energy security.
Strategic assessments from security think tanks reinforce the notion that Iran's ability to block the strait permanently is limited, although temporary disruptions could still inflict economic shockwaves, according to a report published in Arab News.
The Israeli strikes have not only heightened military tensions but have also derailed international diplomatic efforts. US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled in Oman were called off, and the Saudi-French summit on Gaza, which had planned to address Palestinian sovereignty at the United Nations, has been postponed.
Observers suggest that Israel’s offensive may have been calculated to forestall any renewed diplomatic momentum on the Iran nuclear file or regional peace efforts that conflict with the current Israeli government's hard-line agenda.
While Israel remains insulated from direct consequences of a Strait of Hormuz blockade—its oil imports come via the Mediterranean from countries such as Azerbaijan, the US, Brazil and Nigeria—the regional economic risks are immense.