NASA has revealed that asteroid 2024 YR4, which previously sparked concern over a possible Earth impact, now shows a slightly increased probability of colliding with the Moon in the year 2032.
Discovered late last year, the asteroid measures between 53 to 67 meters in diameter—roughly the size of a 10-storey building—and is classified as an Apollo-type asteroid due to its orbit pattern.
Though currently too distant to be seen from Earth using conventional telescopes, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) recently managed to capture a final glimpse of the asteroid before it disappeared into its orbit around the Sun. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California used this data to refine the asteroid’s path.
The likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking the Moon has slightly risen from 3.8% to 4.3%, according to NASA. However, the agency confirmed that such an impact would not affect the Moon’s orbit.
"According to James Webb data, the knowledge about the exact location of the asteroid on December 22, 2032, has been improved by nearly 20%," NASA stated, highlighting the increased accuracy in tracking the asteroid’s future position.
Astronomer Pawan Kumar, formerly with the Indian Institute of Astrophysics in Bengaluru, reassured the public in an interview with Space.com. "The Moon is indeed safe," he said, adding that even if debris from a potential impact enters near-Earth space, it "would blow up in Earth's atmosphere."
Asteroid 2024 YR4 gained attention last year after initial estimates suggested a slight possibility of it hitting Earth. However, subsequent analysis by NASA ruled out any immediate danger to our planet.
Astronomers continue to monitor the asteroid closely, refining its orbital trajectory and assessing its long-term impact risks, even as the immediate threat to Earth remains negligible.