Another Iraq looms as Trump ignores US intelligence on Iran’s halted nuclear project

US President Donald Trump has once again dismissed the latest intelligence assessment that Iran has halted its nuclear weapons programme, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei reportedly having suspended it in 2003, appearing to align instead with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s calls for military action, a move critics warn risks dragging Washington into “another Iraq” in a potential combined US–Israel strike on Iran, just as both nations have escalated attacks.

The testimony from Tulsi Gabbard, the US Director of National Intelligence, during congressional hearings had made it clear that the intelligence community saw no active nuclear weapons development in Iran, yet Trump ignored the findings and claimed that Iran was dangerously close to producing a nuclear weapon, bringing his stance in line with Israeli strategic thinking, which insists that Iran's intentions demand a pre-emptive strike, The Guardian reported.

As Washington inches closer to potential military intervention, Gabbard, originally chosen for her scepticism of prolonged Middle Eastern engagements and mistrust of interventionist policies, finds herself sidelined from high-level discussions even as her assessments contradict the administration’s war footing.

Military preparations suggest that both the US and Israel are escalating towards conflict, with the Pentagon moving over 31 aerial refuelling aircraft toward Europe and possibly beyond, while Israel claims to have struck Iranian military and weapons sites, including a centrifuge production facility in Tehran.

A major explosion was heard in the Iranian capital early Wednesday, with reports suggesting the attacks also targeted the Revolutionary Guard’s academy in Hakimiyeh and caused significant disruption to daily life, including the rare closure of the Grand Bazaar.

Israeli military commanders acknowledged that although their air raids have temporarily delayed Iran’s nuclear capabilities by a few months, the strikes have not inflicted lasting damage on Iran’s vast and heavily fortified nuclear infrastructure, which includes sites like Fordow buried under nearly 90 metres of mountain.

While Israel struck Fordow on the first day of its campaign, the International Atomic Energy Agency has since confirmed that the enrichment plant remains intact, suggesting that key targets are still operational despite the intensity of the assault.

The US alone possesses the weaponry capable of destroying deeply buried sites such as Fordow, particularly the GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator, deliverable only by the B-2 bomber. These developments hint at serious deliberations within the Pentagon about a broader and more destructive strike, raising fears that the conflict could escalate into a full-scale war with far-reaching consequences for the Middle East.

Although Israel has demonstrated considerable air superiority and intelligence capabilities since launching attacks on Friday, experts agree that without comprehensive US military involvement or a renewed diplomatic agreement with strict inspections, the offensive may only provoke Iran to accelerate its nuclear ambitions