Striking Iran for regime change, Netanyahu puts Israel’s security at risk

In June 2025, the State of Israel launched missile and drone attacks on the Islamic Republic of Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, notorious for his ultra-aggressive stance, has never seen a war he did not support.

Israel attacked several military sites and killed a number of top Iranian military commanders. Iran claimed that Israel’s airstrikes killed over 200 civilians.

Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, there has been enduring hostility between the Jewish state and Iran. Iran is a staunch supporter of Palestinian liberation, despite being over 90% Shia, while over 95% of Palestinians are Sunni and very few are Shia. Iran also funds and arms Hezbollah, a Shia militant group in Lebanon.

President Donald J. Trump stated that he had advised Israel not to target Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran. The Iranian President is subordinate to him. Trump added that while the United States knows Khamenei’s location and is not targeting him for now, if Iran does not capitulate, the U.S. might consider assassinating him.

No state has deliberately assassinated another head of state in decades. U.S. law prohibits it. To do so would break a longstanding international taboo and could make American presidents targets in return.

The U.S. government has deployed more forces to the Middle East. President Trump said the U.S. might join Israel in its attacks on Iran, despite also branding himself a "peace president." An attack on Iran could quickly become unpopular, potentially provoking retaliatory strikes against U.S. interests worldwide.

Not surprisingly, Iran has retaliated. Iranian reasoning suggests that if it does not hit back, Israeli aerial bombardment will continue. If Israel pays a high price, it may reconsider further attacks.

Israel alleges that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, a claim repeated since the 1990s. Years ago, Netanyahu said it was “five minutes to midnight” in terms of Iran achieving nuclear capability. Tehran has consistently denied this. Some nuclear experts say there is no conclusive evidence that Iran is pursuing nuclear arms.

Iraq and Libya, which experienced Western-backed regime changes, did not possess nuclear weapons but had sought to develop them. Iran may, therefore, conclude that the only way to deter invasion is by acquiring nuclear arms. Israel’s own nuclear arsenal, long denied but widely acknowledged, is seen as a threat to Iran and the Muslim world.

Given that ten countries have nuclear weapons, why shouldn’t Iran? Israel refuses to confirm or deny its nuclear capability, and it has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran has signed the treaty. Furthermore, Israel occupies parts of three other countries, while Iran has not occupied foreign territory for centuries.

The Iranian government argues that, like other nations, it has the right to develop civilian nuclear energy. This would allow Iran to export more of its oil and gas rather than consume it domestically.

The late Robert Fisk noted that Iran began its nuclear programme in the 1970s when it was ruled by the West-aligned Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi. Western nations and Israel raised no objections at that time.

The Iranian government is deeply unpopular. In 2023, the British government estimated a 50% chance of revolution in Iran that year. The likelihood has since declined, but not by much. The theocrats in power have been accused of embezzling public funds and isolating the country diplomatically.

Iran is considered a pariah state, with only North Korea, China, and Russia as allies. Even then, Russia is seen as a duplicitous partner, failing to deliver the fighter jets Iran has paid for. Iranian leaders know Putin is untrustworthy and may abandon them if rapprochement with the West becomes more advantageous.

The regime retains power through repression and appeals to religious fundamentalism. Women who defy the hijab law in public have been beaten to death. Peaceful protesters were executed in 2023 after trials lasting mere minutes.

That said, the regime does not rely solely on violence. It has genuine support among the devout, older populations, the less educated, and residents of specific regions. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the ideological armed wing of the regime, is steeped in its worldview, whereas the regular army is seen as more politically neutral.

Iran’s counterattacks against Israel have been largely ineffectual. Its military technology lags far behind Israel’s, which is cutting-edge. Iranian strikes in 2024 were also fended off by the Israeli military, supported by the U.S. and British air forces.

As a result, the Iranian government is viewed by many of its citizens as a failure, unable to defend the homeland. The pursuit of nuclear technology—civil or military—has not succeeded, yet it has brought 25 years of intermittent sanctions, which have crippled economic growth and triggered a brain drain. Many educated Iranians emigrate to the UAE, Canada, Turkey, Germany, Australia, the United Kingdom, and even the United States.

There are several million Iranians and people of Iranian descent living abroad, most of whom favour regime change.

Yet, many Iranian liberals despise Netanyahu even more than their own regime. To them, he embodies cruelty and bigotry.

Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah, visited Israel in 2024. He lives in the U.S. Though his father was widely hated in 1979, with protestors shouting "marg ba Shah" ("death to the Shah"), the monarchy’s image has improved posthumously due to the failures of the current regime.

Reza Pahlavi is seen as a symbolic figure by some Iranian opposition groups. The U.S. may be considering installing him as a puppet ruler.

However, no Iranian reformer supports bombing or invading Iran. The notion that attacks by Israel and the U.S. will lead to regime change is misguided. Such attacks might even consolidate the regime’s support, as opposing the government during wartime can seem unpatriotic. Still, if the regime loses a war, it could collapse. The leadership is now so unpopular that it dares not enforce some religious laws.

Iran’s position has weakened substantially over the past year. Its ally, Hezbollah in Lebanon, has been degraded by Israeli airstrikes that killed dozens of its officers. The fall of Assad in Syria also removed a key regional partner.

Iran has warned the U.S., France, and the U.K. against involvement, threatening to target their regional interests. The U.K. has not issued a definitive statement, but the Royal Air Force has increased its regional presence. The RAF maintains bases in Cyprus and the Persian Gulf.

A potential solution would be for Iran to dismantle its civilian nuclear programme entirely, eliminating suspicion about nuclear weapons development. In return, the U.S. and others could offer full sanctions relief—an offer that Iran might consider.

Rising tensions in the Middle East have driven up oil prices, benefiting Russia while damaging Western economies. It has also diverted attention from the war in Ukraine—another outcome favourable to Moscow.