Who are in the race for the papacy? Wait for the next white smoke

There is a saying that a man enters a Papal Conclave as the next pope and leaves as a cardinal. That means the obvious candidate is never elected. However, in 2005, that was wrong. Josef Ratzinger was regarded as the strongest candidate, and he won, becoming Pope Benedict XVI. But generally speaking, it is true that relatively unknown candidates win the papacy.

There is a sense that the next pope should be someone from outside Europe and indeed the West. He ought to be a non-white man. That is because the majority of Catholics are now in Asia and Africa.

In the 1950s, the Italian press coined the term ‘papabile’ as in ‘popeable’ – those cardinals who were regarded as contenders for the papacy. Who are the papabile today?

Papabile (pronounced pah-PAH-bee-leh) is an Italian term meaning "popeable"—that is, a cardinal who is considered a likely or suitable candidate to be elected pope in a future conclave. The plural is papabili.

The term was coined by the Italian press and is used informally to refer to those cardinals who, because of their influence, background, or reputation, are seen as serious contenders for the papacy. However, as the saying goes in Vatican circles: “He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves as a cardinal”—suggesting that frontrunners are rarely chosen.

Luis Tagle

Luis Cardinal Tagle is considered a serious candidate. He is the Cardinal Archbishop of Manila, and his nationality is Filipino. He is 67 but looks much younger and is very energetic. He is also a native speaker of English, which redounds to his advantage. Cardinal Tagle said the church must be much more accepting of unwed parents. He is regarded as a uniter, not a divider. There are no skeletons in his cupboard. He is telegenic and popular. There has never been a pope from Asia, and some people say that it is high time that the Catholic Church elects someone from the world’s most populous continent

Chance: 25%

Fridilin Ambongo Besungu

Besungu is the Archbishop of Kinshasa. He is Congolese and, at 65, is the youngest of the candidates, which is an advantage. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has more Catholics than any other country in Africa. He is a native speaker of French. The DRC has a rapidly growing population. This man would emphasise the fight against poverty as a moral issue. His inability to speak good English is a problem for him. He is totally against homosexuality. Some have accused him of also being Islamophobic.

Chance: 20%

Peter Turkson

Cardinal Turkson is Ghanaian, and English is his first language. Cardinal Turkson is 76, which is fairly old, but he looks much younger. The Church probably wants a younger man because that would mean a reasonably long pontificate. He is considered a traditionalist. Some think this is bad, and the church really needs to modernise. Turkson is opposed to contraception. This may harm his chances, as most Catholics disagree with this doctrine. The population explosion has aggravated poverty in Africa. He was seen as a serious candidate in 2013. Perhaps now his time has come.

Chance: 15%

Robert Sarah

Cardinal Sarah is Guinean and therefore a native speaker of French. He is 79 years of age and an arch-conservative, which some dislike. He grew up in a penniless family and was made an archbishop at the positively juvenile age of 34. He was the youngest archbishop in the world at the time.

Chance: 10%

Robert Prevost

Cardinal Prevost is a 69-year-old American. To be cynical, his appointments could lead to more financial donations from American Catholics, just as the election of a German pope led many Germans to give money to the Church. Prevost speaks fluent Spanish from time spent in Peru. He was accused of covering up allegations that his subordinates had committed sexual abuse against children. He disputes this, but the allegation might make some think it better not to elect a man with the merest hint of scandal. There has never been a pope from the USA, but some would say the Church has to choose a man from outside the Western World.

Chance: 8%

Peter Erdo

Cardinal Erdő is a 72-year-old Hungarian. Erdo is seen by some as too close to the Prime Minister of Hungary. Cardinal Erdö has been criticised for a lack of compassion towards asylum seekers in Hungary. Christianity teaches people to show mercy to sojourners. He has striven to forge links with Orthodox Christians. Hungary borders two Orthodox countries: Romania and Ukraine.

Chance: 7%

Michael Czerny

Cardinal Czerny is a 78-year-old Czech-Canadian. He is a priest in the Society of Jesus, like the late Pope Francis. Members of this society are known as Jesuits and are the intellectual elite of the church. He is a strong advocate of more help for the world’s poor.

Chance: 6%

Marc Ouellet

Cardinal Ouellet has been considered a serious contender twice before. Third time lucky? At 80, many will consider him too long in the tooth. He is forbidden to attend the Papal Conclave on the grounds of age, but the rules do not prohibit electing a man of his years. Ouellet is Canadian and speaks French as his first language, as well as being fluent in English.

Chance: 4%

Pietro Parolin

Cardinal Parolin is Italian. As 213 out of 266 popes have been Italians, this counts against him. Many Catholics will say the cardinals should elect any nationality except an Italian. Parolin is the Cardinal Secretary of State - effectively the prime minister of the Vatican City, whereas the pope is head of state. Parolin is therefore one of the highest-ranking Vatican officials. He is certainly adept at leadership roles. His firm stance against homosexuality may be a disadvantage.

Chance: 2%

Reinhard Marx

The 71-year-old Archbishop of Munich worked in the Vatican for years. Some people think that Marx must not be elected because that would mean 2 out of the last 3 popes would be Germans. There is a feeling that the College of Cardinals should elect a non-white person. Marx is quite liberal, saying the Church needs to be more welcoming of gays and transsexuals. This is too much for conservative Catholics. He tendered his resignation over his mishandling of allegations of child sex crimes by Catholic priests in his archdiocese. Pope Francis told him to stay en poste. Nonetheless, the scandal was a major handicap for him. The Church is desperate to shake off its reputation for paedophilia.

Chance: 1%

Angelo Scola

Cardinal Scola is an 83-year-old Italian. These are two major disadvantages. He was seen as a very strong contender in 2013. But he missed his chance. He is personable and an effective administrator. He was a highly successful Archbishop of Milan.

Chance: 1%

Anonymous

Of course, it could be someone we have not even thought of! In theory, there are hundreds of millions of Catholics like me who could be chosen.

Chance: 1%