Will the UK rejoin the EU? Politics may block the public will

The United Kingdom left the European Union in 2020 after 52% of people voted to do so in a 2016 referendum. An opinion poll showed only 32% of Britons think Brexit has been a success. About 40% of people wish to rejoin the European Union. The rest are neutral or refused to answer.

The Liberal Democrats campaigned in the 2019 election to stop Brexit. This increased their vote share by half but not their number of MPs. Their leader even lost her seat. The Lib Dems now have a policy of eventually rejoining the European Union.

The European Union was unhappy about its second-largest member state departing. Brussels’ reaction was one of disdain. The EU also wanted to make an example of the United Kingdom. If Brexit was a resounding success, then other EU countries would choose to leave the European Union.

Tempers have cooled. The EU perceives that the United Kingdom is still a major trading partner. To harm the UK is to indirectly harm the EU. The Ukraine War reminded the European Union that the UK is not an enemy. The EU has a real enemy, and that is Russia.

Labour won the 2024 election. Most in the European Union find the Labour Party a more acceptable government of the United Kingdom than the Conservative Party. It was the Conservatives that led the UK out of the EU. Almost every Labour politician campaigned for a Remain vote in 2016.

Since Sir Keir Starmer became Prime Minister in 2024, the UK’s Labour Government has signed several cooperation agreements with the EU. This has aligned the United Kingdom more with the EU. The European Union has allowed British passport holders to use the E-gates when visiting the EU.

There have been state visits between the heads of various EU countries and the British Monarch since 2020. Moreover, since Charles III succeeded to the Throne, he has been on state visits to France, Germany, Italy and elsewhere. The old cordiality has been revived.

Brexit has not been the cataclysm that Remainers claimed. The remaining propaganda was exposed as absolute lies. The UK did not suffer mass unemployment and an economic meltdown, which was predicted. Remainers even said the UK would not get fruit and vegetables. Lie after lie after lie after lie was shamelessly told by Remainers. The British economy continued to grow after 2020. It is in better shape than most EU countries. The United Kingdom has signed dozens of trade deals with other countries. Trade with the EU is almost frictionless. The situation in Northern Ireland is placid.

The benefits of Brexit have not been as great as some hoped. London has not turned into Singapore-on-Thames. There have been some notable disadvantages, such as an increased regulatory burden. Direct investment is down.

Sentiment in favour of rejoining is pronounced among the under-40s and people in metropolises. These people are growing as a percentage of the population. Some people stood as ‘Rejoin EU’ candidates in various elections. These candidates seldom garnered more than 1% of the vote. They were simply standing to fly the flag for their issue.

Labour has decided that advocating rejoining the EU is toxic. In 2019, Labour had a confusing and illogical policy on the EU. This led to an electoral rout, which was their worst result since 1935. Labour has learnt very painful lessons. There are many other things it wants to achieve. Privately, some Labour politicians wish to bring the United Kingdom back into the EU. But they reason it is electorally unwise to say this for at least several years.

Rejoining the European Union is no simple matter, just as leaving it was tricky and complicated. Even if everyone in the United Kingdom voted to rejoin the EU, that would not automatically make the United Kingdom an EU member state. The UK would have to apply to join. It would need to attain EU candidate status. This could take several years. It would then need to be accepted to rejoin. Turkey has been stuck on candidate status since 1987!

There are 27 EU member states. For the UK to be allowed to rejoin would require unanimous support. There is still some rancour over Brexit in other EU member states.

Some British Europhiles reckon the price of rejoining the EU would be too high. The EU might accept the British back, subject to several provisos. Cyprus might demand the retrocession of the British Sovereign Base Areas of Akrotiri and Dhekelia. The Republic of Ireland might demand Northern Ireland. Spain might demand the annulment of the Treaty of Utrecht, which makes Gibraltar the territory of the UK. The EU might insist that the UK scrap the Pound Sterling and adopt the Euro as its currency. The United Kingdom might be obliged to join the Schengen Agreement and pay more to the European Union. The UK might be required to agree never to leave again.

The terms of accession might be too ugly. On the other hand, there are those in the EU who would welcome back the United Kingdom with open arms. The UK rejoining would be the ultimate vindication. Therefore, it makes sense to offer the British as alluring a package as possible.

The UK could join the EU again in the same way it joined before, and as it joined the European Economic Community: by a vote in Parliament, not by a referendum. There is an elite consensus about rejoining. If there were a referendum, it would probably be before the terms of a rejoin deal are known. That is because the terms might be unattractive.

If the UK does rejoin the EU, it will not be for at least 10 years and more like 20. The chance that the UK eventually rejoins the EU is 40%.