NASA's planetary defense strategy reduces risk of asteroid collision with Earth
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NASA has updated its assessment of the potential threat posed by asteroid 2024 YR4, which earlier this year raised concerns about a possible Earth impact in 2032.
After extensive observations and new scientific data, the collision probability has been reduced to less than 1%, alleviating fears of an impending strike.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 had attracted significant attention when its chance of impacting Earth peaked at over three percent in February 2024. This marked the highest probability recorded for an asteroid of this size, drawing attention to the potential damage such an impact could cause.
The asteroid, which is nearly 60 meters wide and shaped like a flat disk, has been under close observation by NASA’s team of astronomers.
Using the Gemini South Observatory in Chile, scientists studied the asteroid over the course of about a month and a half in February. While the asteroid passes Earth every four years, it will be too distant for visibility by ground telescopes in the coming weeks. However, the James Webb Space Telescope is expected to observe it again in the near future.
The asteroid's unusual flat disk shape, along with its rapid rotation rate of once every 20 minutes, was an unexpected discovery. Such characteristics are rare, as most asteroids tend to have irregular shapes, often resembling potatoes. Scientists believe it most likely originated from the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, a region rich in silicate material.
Despite initial concerns, new data has dramatically reduced the likelihood of an Earth impact. The current probability of a collision with Earth is under one percent, and 2024 YR4 is no longer considered a threat to our planet.
However, there remains a 3.8% chance that the asteroid could strike the Moon. Such a collision would not alter the Moon's orbit, though it would still provide valuable scientific data for further research.
This situation highlights the importance of monitoring near-Earth objects (NEOs) and collecting data to assess potential risks. NASA's ongoing efforts to share this data with the global scientific community improve the ability to detect and evaluate asteroid threats. Through observations collected by institutions like the Minor Planet Center, NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) plays a key role in identifying and tracking potential hazards.
Looking ahead, NASA is preparing to launch the NEO Surveyor mission in the fall of 2027, a dedicated space observatory designed to assess asteroid threats well in advance. The data gathered from NEO Surveyor will be made available to the scientific community, contributing to the global effort to monitor and mitigate asteroid risks.
