A dramatic ceasefire, much to worry than celebrate for Israel
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A war that is supposed to prolong for months, as the Israeli premier announced, stopped abruptly leaving a flurry of unanswered questions. The dramatic declaration of ceasefire by the US President Donald Trump, definitely raised everybody's eyebrows. Did Isreal, which started the war against Iran achieve its goal? Did US ‘obliterate’ the uranium enrichment capacity of Iran for ever? Why did Iran inform Qatar before striking the US base in that country? The whole episode that lasted 12 days displays a bleak and grey picture. The moot point is why Israel started the war and how it ended. In a way, those are the mundane aspects of the war, but the picture is much wider. It’s all a part of a big game. The power game between the super power countries.
The ceasefire agreement was not in fact determined after Iran's missile attack against US base in Qatar, the final strike in the 12 day conflict; rather it was the strong involvement of Russia and China that forced the US to announce the ceasefire. Remember, soon after the war started on 13th of this month, Iranian foreign minister visited Russian President Vladmir Putin. He made it clear that the aggression of Israel and US has no grounds and hence was condemnable. Dmitry Medvedev, a close aide of Putin went further and said the uranium enrichment and the production of nuclear weapons will continue. No less significant is the stance of China. Both these super powers threw their weight behind Iran, though not engaged directly. In reality, this was what led to the hasty settlement.
One can sense the changes that happened eventually from the beginning of the war. Trump was not wanting in his demand for the unconditional surrender of Iran. Later it changed into unconditional ceasefire. The whole thing he can brag now is the so-called obliteration of nuclear facility of Iran. A claim still to be verified. Even the Israeli authorities are not fully convinced of Trump’s claims. The thing is that Iran had relocated its enriched uranium to an undisclosed site ahead of US aggression. US Vice President JD Vance admitted in an interview with ABC news that 400 kg uranium was moved out of Fordow nuclear facility before the attack. That means, even though the Fordow nuclear site was demolished, Iran can proceed with its nuclear programme from a different site. Actually, it led Iran to determine not to cooperate with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN watchdog for nuclear safety. Iranian parliament has passed a bill to suspend its cooperation with IAEA. In that case, the US and its allies will be in the dark about the nuclear programme as this UN agency is the source of all the information about Iran's programme.
The next goal of Israel and the US was a regime change in Iran. That also went unaccomplished. The Shiite administration led by Ayatullah Ali Khamenei is a tough nut to crack for Americans and Israelis. For the White House it all started right since the Islamic revolution of 1979 which toppled the US installed government. And for China and Russia, they do not want Iran to be ruled by a US puppet government in the Middle East. Once the current regime falls together with Khamenei deposed, a pro-US dispensation should take over the country. That will not be in the interest of the global south, led by China and Russia.
At the end of the day, both US and Iran are somewhat happy with the outcome of the 12 day war. The aggrieved party is none other than Israel. The Zionist regime could hardly digest the fact.Both Iran and US could satisfy their domestic audience. The leaders from respective countries can proudly say that they are not weak, and their purpose is done. Donald Trump can make a blowhard of his bunker buster bombs and tell his audience that Iranian nuclear stations were completely obliterated, though the fact is completely otherwise. Iran proved till the end that it can strike anywhere in Israel and the much acclaimed Iron Dome is not fully reliable.
For Israel, it is disheartening. No regime change, no unconditional surrender by Iran, not at all any guarantee from Iran on nuclear weaponization. Yes, it was able to kill many of the Iranian military leaders and scientists. That does not mean that Iran can no longer make nuclear weapon or it has lost its capacity to strike Israel by ballistic missiles. The attempt to trigger anti-government sentiment in Iran also proved stillborn. What remains is the high decibel claims of Trump. The veracity of those claims are still under cloud. The B2B bombers could make some damage, but not significant since the uranium enrichment site in Iran is almost 100 meters deep. And the B2B stealth bombers can penetrate up to 65 meters down at a time, as one can understand from the words of experts.
So, what's the balance sheet? Iran lost many of its leading scientists and lost hundreds of lives. But its regime is intact. So is the nuclear programme. Israel lost less lives compared to Iran, but its infrastructure and strategic centres were badly hit. More importantly, the much acclaimed Iron Dome has proved ineffectual. It no longer provides impenetrability. In that sense, the ceasefire is a breather for Israelis. Though humiliating.
