Measles cases surge in US as vaccination rates drop: study

New Delhi: The United States could face a major measles resurgence as vaccination rates decline across several states, according to a recent study.

Researchers from Stanford, Baylor, Rice, and Texas universities employed a simulation model to analyse the importation and dynamic spread of vaccine-preventable diseases across all 50 states, as reported by Xinhua news agency.

The model evaluated scenarios with different vaccination rates over 25 years.

At current vaccination levels, measles could potentially regain endemic status in the United States, with an estimated 851,300 cases projected over the next 25 years, according to a study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

The study further predicts that a 10 per cent decline in vaccination rates could result in 11.1 million measles cases during the same period. A more drastic drop of 50 per cent could lead to 51.2 million measles cases, along with 9.9 million rubella cases, 4.3 million poliomyelitis cases, 197 diphtheria cases, 10.3 million hospitalisations, and 159,200 deaths.

The study highlights the concerning decline in vaccination rates across the United States, a trend that began during the Covid-19 pandemic due to various factors, including policy changes—such as the increased use of personal belief exemptions to childhood vaccine schedules—misinformation, distrust, and other societal and individual-level influences. Additionally, ongoing policy debates aimed at reducing the childhood vaccine schedule have further exacerbated the issue.

This growing antivaccine sentiment has coincided with a rise in outbreaks and cases of vaccine-preventable diseases. Since 2024, the country has witnessed an increase in measles outbreaks, including a major outbreak in West Texas, which has led to numerous paediatric hospitalisations.

The new findings support the need to continue routine childhood vaccination at high coverage to prevent a resurgence of vaccine-preventable infectious diseases in the country.

“At current state-level vaccination rates, measles may become endemic again; increasing vaccine coverage would prevent this,” said the researchers.

“Based on estimates from this modelling study, declining childhood vaccination rates will increase the frequency and size of outbreaks of previously eliminated vaccine-preventable infections, eventually leading to their return to endemic levels,” the researchers said.

(inputs from IANS)