Parties await with confidence as Nilambur bypoll result comes Monday

Malappuram: With just hours to go before the result of the Nilambur assembly bypoll is declared, the ruling LDF, opposition UDF, and the BJP-led NDA are closely watching the outcome—widely viewed as a crucial barometer of Kerala’s political mood ahead of the 2026 state elections.

Counting of votes in the forest-fringe constituency, which saw a high-stakes four-cornered contest, is set to begin Monday.

The Congress-led UDF fielded Aryadan Shoukath, former Nilambur Municipality chairman, while the CPI(M)-led LDF backed senior leader and state secretariat member M Swaraj. The NDA nominated lawyer-politician Mohan George.

Adding further drama to the race was the unexpected entry of Trinamool Congress state convenor P V Anvar, who previously won twice from Nilambur as an independent supported by the LDF.

Despite heavy rain and challenging weather, voter turnout stood at an impressive 75.87 percent, according to the Election Commission.

Of the total 2,32,057 registered voters in Nilambur, 1,74,667 cast their ballots at polling stations, while 1,402 opted for postal voting, according to official figures.

With counting arrangements in place and anticipation building, all major political fronts have exuded confidence in securing victory.

The Congress-led UDF is projecting a lead of at least 15,000 votes for its candidate Aryadan Shoukath, attributing their optimism to anti-incumbency sentiments and strong minority support.

Meanwhile, CPI(M)-backed LDF sources expect M Swaraj to win by a margin of no less than 10,000 votes, crediting their grassroots campaign, involvement of senior leaders, and rallies led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

The BJP-led NDA has hinted at shifting political dynamics in the constituency that it believes will play in its favour.

P V Anvar, contesting under the Trinamool Congress banner, dismissed all predictions from mainstream alliances, asserting he was poised for a third consecutive victory in Nilambur—this time with a 25,000-vote lead.

The Nilambur by-election was triggered by a fallout between LDF-backed independent MLA P V Anvar and the ruling CPI(M).

With the Pinarayi Vijayan government approaching the end of its second term, the contest has taken on heightened significance for both the CPI(M)-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF, transforming into a symbolic battle of influence and momentum ahead of the 2026 state elections.

Unlike typical bypolls, the campaign spotlighted not only local concerns—such as human-animal conflicts and welfare pensions—but also international and ideological debates. These included the Israel-Palestine conflict and the Congress's alleged association with Jamaat-e-Islami, which became flashpoints of political sparring.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who led campaign efforts for LDF candidate Swaraj with multiple rallies in Nilambur, accused the Congress leadership of playing communal cards to win the election.

The Congress-led UDF strongly denied the charges, countering that it was the LDF camp that attempted to garner votes in the Muslim-dominated constituency.

The opposition further raised past controversial remarks made by Vijayan regarding the Muslim-majority Malappuram district.

In response, the ruling alliance pointed to the "bribery" remarks made by AICC General Secretary K C Venugopal related to the disbursal of welfare pension arrears, made during the bypoll campaign, in an attempt to shift the narrative.

(inputs from PTI)